It’s Been Quite A Year
For the year-to-date, the Actual Cash Account is showing a profit of $237,063 +33.34%. Dan’s Aggressive Account is ahead $1,352,648 +32.20%. Over the same time frame the benchmark S&P 500 with dividends factored in has gained 30.7%.
The stock market kicked the New Year off with a bang. On the first day of trading, the Dow surged 308 points or 2.4%, the S&P 500 rose 2.5% while the NASDAQ spiked 3.1%. The rally was triggered by the news that President Obama and the Senate had reached an agreement to keep the economy from falling off the “fiscal cliff”. On that day, the Russell 2000 and the S&P Midcap Index finished in all-time record high territory. Also, the important Advance/Decline line hit bull market highs which prompted us to comment that “it’s a big plus for the bull market’s staying power going forward.”
In addition, the Chartist Volume Thrust Indicator flashed a buy signal on January 2. A signal occurs when upside volume exceeds downside volume by at least 10 to 1 on one day and then by at least 4 to 1 the next trading session. On December 31, upside volume was overwhelming by 28 to 1 and January 2 by 12 to 1. We wrote that since 1958 there had been 14 volume thrust buy signals with the Dow showing gains of 9.5%, 15.4% and 21.4% over the ensuing three, six and nine month periods. Obviously, 2013 proved to be another successful buy signal for the indicator.
The market remained strong through January with the benchmark S&P 500 gaining 5.04% for the month. This triggered a positive reading from the Stock Trader’s Almanac January Barometer. Simply, the indicator states that when the market finishes January in positive territory, the entire year should also be positive. In our February 14 issue, we tweaked the premise a little and isolated those Januarys when the S&P gained more than 4%. Since 1950, the exceptionally strong Januarys have occurred 19 times. The S&P followed suit. The S&P 500 was up from February to December on 18 of those occasions for an average gain of 14.8%.
One constant theme from a technical standpoint in 2013 was the strength of the Advance/Decline line. In March, the A/D line not only recorded bull market highs but also its highest level in history. With the A/D line historically topping out well ahead of the key averages, we noted that it bode well for the market’s prospects moving forward. “The fact that the A/D line is in a pronounced uptrend could not be more bullish for the stock market’s prospects. While the party might not last, they never do. This one, in our opinion, is going to last a lot longer than most stock market participants anticipate.”
The first real sign of trouble for the market started in mid-May and continued towards the end of June. There is no question that volatility returned with a vengeance. In June, the Dow moved up or down by 100 points or more 16 times. The crux of the volatility took place from June 11 to 20 when the Dow recorded triple digit moves on eight consecutive occasions. The volatility began after the Federal Reserve hinted that it would curtail its bond buying program. The VIX, often referred to as the “fear gauge” rose from a six-year low at 11.30 on March 15 to 20.49 on June 20. The S&P 500 declined 7.5% from its intraday high on May 22 to its intraday low on June 24. As a result, our Chartist Overbought/Oversold Indicator fell to oversold territory on June 24 at -3.13 which was the first time since November 2012 that it had fallen into heavily oversold territory.
Speculation on when the Federal Reserve would scale back its massive bond buying program dominated the market in the latter half of the year. The Fed’s “tape talk” that began in May had a negative impact on the bond market. The 10-year Treasury yield spiked from 1.6% in May to almost 3% by September. As the yields have risen, bond prices have dropped and bond prices are on par to suffer their first annual loss since 1994. According to TrimTabs, investors have pulled $72 billion from bond funds through the first week of December. It is the first time in almost 10 years that investors have taken out more than they have added and will likely top the record of $63 billion hit in 1994.
In October, a political showdown between President Obama versus House Republicans over funding for the Affordable Care Act resulted in a partial government shutdown. The shutdown ended on October 16, after an interim appropriations bill was signed into law. Despite many economists’ predictions to the contrary, the closure had little effect on the overall economy or the stock market. After reaching a low on October 8, the S&P staged an impressive rally climbing 6.0% in only 10 trading sessions. The Daily Advance/Decline Line confirmed the breakout as it moved through its September highs with authority. The breakout was accompanied by a great deal of upside momentum. This was reflected by the 10-day moving average of advancing stocks versus declining stocks which rose to 1.82 on October 22 and within striking distance of a Chartist Momentum Thrust buy signal.